An attempt to grasp on-going events in the Middle East Given the circumstances, it seems prudent to revise the popular notion of an Arab Spring and talk instead of “Arab transitions,” while certainly hoping for the arrival of a more verdant season for the countries of North Africa and the Middle East.
Things will become clearer once elections in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain and Jordan, all scheduled to happen within a year, have taken place, and once the fog shrouding the Syrian protests and post-Qaddafi Libya has lifted. We’ll also have to see what comes of the turmoil in Saudi Arabia and Algeria, and, to a lesser extent, in Morocco, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. And, of course, one hopes that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict doesn’t get out of hand, and that things in Lebanon hold steady.
It’s hard to get a firm grasp on what happened and continues to happen in the Middle East. As the accurate fact-checking of history replaces the initial Internet headlines, things that at first seemed positive turn out to be much more problematic (see the situation of the Egyptian Coptic Christians, with church burning, killing and serious harassment). In fact, even the revolution of the youth activists in Egypt seems not to be reaching the hoped-for results. The regimes of the region, all theocratic and Islamic, all having Islam as their state religion or being led by an Islamic leader with constitutional mandate, rely on a fragile stability that seems more precarious every day. They are threatened by fundamentalism, anti-Semitism, migrations, local skirmishes and intra-Islamic conflicts.